Odds are that Apple's Thunderbolt I/O -- fruit of Intel's erstwhile Light Peak technology -- will eventually enjoy at least the same ubiquity as FireWire once had within the Apple ecosystem. However, as suggested by CNET's Harry McCracken, what's less clear is whether the technology will take hold in the larger, largely Windows-centric PC industry outside of Apple's sphere of influence. McCracken observes that there's no need for PCs to have Thunderbolt ports unless there's peripheral devices to plug into them -- and that Thunderbolt peripheral devices will be useless to vast numbers of consumers unless there are PCs that can accommodate them. And, while Apple can pretty much mint any technology as its own standard by plugging it into all Macs, standards only happen in the rest of the industry if companies from the wide world of PC manufacturers such Acer, Asus, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, Sony, and many others, all think they're a good idea. Then, even when consensus comes, change can take a lot of time -- unless, of course, it doesn't.
See Also: Tearing down Apple's Thunderbolt cable
Link: Waiting for Thunderbolt--one port to rule them all (news.cnet.com)
I think will be fascinating is not just what the technology is; but what key strategic marketing moves Apple makes to keep the interest up; but not reveal so much it gives other interconnect technologies a chance to leap frog it; and build an ecosphere of compelling products everyone wants.
ReplyDeleteWill Ouyang